Evolution Lectures

Saturday, November 7, 2009

China's Investing in a New Currency... And It Ain't the Dollar

Let’s talk about China.

China is the US’s largest creditor. All told, the People’s Republic has $700+ billion in US Treasuries. However, if you account for other dollar denominated investments, China is believed to have 70% of its $1.7 trillion in foreign reserves sitting in green backs.

That’s an unbelievable amount of money invested in the US dollar. Needless to say, the Chinese are not too happy about our Central Bank’s decision to print TRILLIONS of dollars propping up the US financial system.

Indeed, the initial rumblings of what will eventually turn into outright conflict (either economic or war) have already begun. China’s Premier Wen Jiabao recently commented, "We have lent a huge amount of money to the US…Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried."

Other, former Chinese officials have been less polite in their public statements. Yu Yongding, a former Chinese central bank adviser, recently referred to the US Federal Reserve “as the world’s biggest junk investor… ridden with rubbish assets,” and to Chairman Ben Bernanke as “helicopter Ben.”

The situation has gotten intense enough that Secretary of the State Hillary Clinton flew to Asia to plead with China and other US creditor nations to continue buying US Treasuries. “By continuing to support American Treasury instruments the Chinese are recognizing our interconnection. We are truly going to rise or fall together," Clinton said at the US embassy there.

In simple terms, China owns a TON of dollar denominated assets. And the Fed is doing everything it can to devalue the dollar. Thus China has a few options:

Openly sell the dollar, thereby destroying the value of its reserves and inviting open war with the US.
Quietly shift away from the dollar without openly attracting attention or threatening the US publicly.

The Chinese government, particularly its Premier, has been floating option #1 in the media, discussing the potential for dropping the dollar standard along with Russia and Brazil.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/143508-china-s-investing-in-a-new-currency-and-it-ain-t-the-dollar

Forex reserves hit all-time high of $43.2B

MANILA, Philippines - The country has become more liquid to meet its foreign currency-denominated requirements such as imports and maturing debts as its gross international reserves hit a new historic high of $43.2 billion in October.

The reserves as of October was up from the end-September level of $42.5 billion. It was also higher than the $35.95 billion in October last year.

The GIR is the total foreign-currency reserves and gold holdings kept and managed by the central bank. It determines a country’s ability to engage in commercial transactions with the rest of the world.

Monetary officials said the country’s rising external liquidity was proof that it was less affected by the global economic turmoil.

The foreign exchange buffer of the country is largely boosted by remittances coming from Filipinos working abroad, officials said. The sustained growth in remittances was making up for the drag in the GIR caused by dwindling exports, which turned anemic this year given the weak consumer demand worldwide caused by the global economic slowdown.

http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20091106-234682/Forex-reserves-hit-all-time-high-of-432B